Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries

Ahlem Dahem; Dhafer Saidane; Fatma Siala Guermazi

doi:doi:10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

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Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries

Ahlem Dahem, Dhafer Saidane, Fatma Siala Guermazi

Published in Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 3, Issue 6-1)

Received: 14 December 2014 Accepted: 16 December 2014 Published: 8 February 2015

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Abstract

The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of 2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.

Published in	Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 3, Issue 6-1) This article belongs to the Special Issue Issues and Challenges of the Financial and Economic Crisis Throughout the World
DOI	10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
Page(s)	33-38
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Monetary Policy, Inflation Drivers, Inflation Forecasting, Monetary Model, Mark-Up Model, Phillips Curve

References

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APA Style

Ahlem Dahem, Dhafer Saidane, Fatma Siala Guermazi. (2015). Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries. Journal of World Economic Research, 3(6-1), 33-38. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

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ACS Style

Ahlem Dahem; Dhafer Saidane; Fatma Siala Guermazi. Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries. J. World Econ. Res. 2015, 3(6-1), 33-38. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

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AMA Style

Ahlem Dahem, Dhafer Saidane, Fatma Siala Guermazi. Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries. J World Econ Res. 2015;3(6-1):33-38. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

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@article{10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15,
  author = {Ahlem Dahem and Dhafer Saidane and Fatma Siala Guermazi},
  title = {Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries},
  journal = {Journal of World Economic Research},
  volume = {3},
  number = {6-1},
  pages = {33-38},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.s.2014030601.15},
  abstract = {The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of  2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.},
 year = {2015}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries
AU  - Ahlem Dahem
AU  - Dhafer Saidane
AU  - Fatma Siala Guermazi
Y1  - 2015/02/08
PY  - 2015
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
T2  - Journal of World Economic Research
JF  - Journal of World Economic Research
JO  - Journal of World Economic Research
SP  - 33
EP  - 38
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7748
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
AB  - The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of  2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.
VL  - 3
IS  - 6-1
ER  -

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Author Information

Ahlem Dahem

Integration Laboratory of International Economic, FSEGT, University Tunis EL MANAR, Tunis, Tunisia
Dhafer Saidane

EQUIPPE-Université de Lille Nord de France and Skema Business School, Université Charles de Gaulle Lille 3, France
Fatma Siala Guermazi

Integration Laboratory of International Economic, FSEGT, University Tunis EL MANAR, Tunis, Tunisia

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Ahlem Dahem, Dhafer Saidane, Fatma Siala Guermazi. (2015). Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries. Journal of World Economic Research, 3(6-1), 33-38. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

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ACS Style

Ahlem Dahem; Dhafer Saidane; Fatma Siala Guermazi. Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries. J. World Econ. Res. 2015, 3(6-1), 33-38. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

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AMA Style

Ahlem Dahem, Dhafer Saidane, Fatma Siala Guermazi. Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries. J World Econ Res. 2015;3(6-1):33-38. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15,
  author = {Ahlem Dahem and Dhafer Saidane and Fatma Siala Guermazi},
  title = {Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries},
  journal = {Journal of World Economic Research},
  volume = {3},
  number = {6-1},
  pages = {33-38},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.s.2014030601.15},
  abstract = {The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of  2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.},
 year = {2015}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries
AU  - Ahlem Dahem
AU  - Dhafer Saidane
AU  - Fatma Siala Guermazi
Y1  - 2015/02/08
PY  - 2015
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
T2  - Journal of World Economic Research
JF  - Journal of World Economic Research
JO  - Journal of World Economic Research
SP  - 33
EP  - 38
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7748
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
AB  - The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of  2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.
VL  - 3
IS  - 6-1
ER  -

Copy | Download