Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems

Krzysztof Wojdyga

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13

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Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems

Krzysztof Wojdyga

Published in International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 3, Issue 5)

Received: 31 August 2014 Accepted: 5 October 2014 Published: 20 October 2014

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Abstract

Poland is one of the heaviest users of district heating systems in Europe, and those district heating systems are heated mainly by coal. Sustainable development of district heating systems in Poland including improving quality of environment, economic of heat production and security of heat supply is in close connection with increasing of energy efficiency. Heat production and heat distribution plays important role in national energy balance. Additional increasing of energy efficiency in district heating systems need detail forecasts for future heat consumption in scale of individual district heating system and for systems in whole country. Accurate forecast give possibility for increasing efficiency of heat production, decreasing fuel consumption and connected with it emission decreasing from combustion products to the atmosphere. Heat production efficiency can be optimized through the use of appropriate procedures for running heat sources alongside short-term heat demand forecasting combined with preparation for adjusting heat source work parameters to the predicted heat load for a few hours hence. The artificial neural networks model delivers good forecasting results. The accuracy of the results depends on the kind of network, its architecture, the size and type of input data as well as the forecasting period. Forecasting accuracy within a 3-5% margin of error is sufficient to steer heat source operations. Described forecasting methods can be use as a good tool to regulate district heating networks and heat sources.

Published in	International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 3, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13
Page(s)	237-244
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2014. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

District Heating Systems, Heat Demand Prediction

References

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Krzysztof Wojdyga. (2014). Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 3(5), 237-244. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13

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Krzysztof Wojdyga. Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2014, 3(5), 237-244. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13

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Krzysztof Wojdyga. Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2014;3(5):237-244. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13,
  author = {Krzysztof Wojdyga},
  title = {Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
  volume = {3},
  number = {5},
  pages = {237-244},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.20140305.13},
  abstract = {Poland is one of the heaviest users of district heating systems in Europe, and those district heating systems are heated mainly by coal. Sustainable development of district heating systems in Poland including improving quality of environment, economic of heat production and security of heat supply is in close connection with increasing of energy efficiency. Heat production and heat distribution plays important role in national energy balance. Additional increasing of energy efficiency in district heating systems need detail forecasts for future heat consumption in  scale of individual district heating system  and for systems in whole country. Accurate forecast give possibility for increasing  efficiency of heat production, decreasing fuel consumption and connected with it emission decreasing from combustion products to the atmosphere. Heat production efficiency can be optimized through the use of appropriate procedures for running heat sources alongside short-term heat demand forecasting combined with preparation for adjusting heat source work parameters to the predicted heat load for a few hours hence. The artificial neural networks model delivers good forecasting results. The accuracy of the results depends on the kind of network, its architecture, the size and type of input data as well as the forecasting period. Forecasting accuracy within a 3-5% margin of error is sufficient to steer heat source operations. Described forecasting methods can be use as a good tool to regulate district heating networks and heat sources.},
 year = {2014}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems
AU  - Krzysztof Wojdyga
Y1  - 2014/10/20
PY  - 2014
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
SP  - 237
EP  - 244
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-960X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13
AB  - Poland is one of the heaviest users of district heating systems in Europe, and those district heating systems are heated mainly by coal. Sustainable development of district heating systems in Poland including improving quality of environment, economic of heat production and security of heat supply is in close connection with increasing of energy efficiency. Heat production and heat distribution plays important role in national energy balance. Additional increasing of energy efficiency in district heating systems need detail forecasts for future heat consumption in  scale of individual district heating system  and for systems in whole country. Accurate forecast give possibility for increasing  efficiency of heat production, decreasing fuel consumption and connected with it emission decreasing from combustion products to the atmosphere. Heat production efficiency can be optimized through the use of appropriate procedures for running heat sources alongside short-term heat demand forecasting combined with preparation for adjusting heat source work parameters to the predicted heat load for a few hours hence. The artificial neural networks model delivers good forecasting results. The accuracy of the results depends on the kind of network, its architecture, the size and type of input data as well as the forecasting period. Forecasting accuracy within a 3-5% margin of error is sufficient to steer heat source operations. Described forecasting methods can be use as a good tool to regulate district heating networks and heat sources.
VL  - 3
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Krzysztof Wojdyga

Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

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Krzysztof Wojdyga. (2014). Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 3(5), 237-244. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13

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ACS Style

Krzysztof Wojdyga. Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2014, 3(5), 237-244. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13

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AMA Style

Krzysztof Wojdyga. Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2014;3(5):237-244. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13,
  author = {Krzysztof Wojdyga},
  title = {Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
  volume = {3},
  number = {5},
  pages = {237-244},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.20140305.13},
  abstract = {Poland is one of the heaviest users of district heating systems in Europe, and those district heating systems are heated mainly by coal. Sustainable development of district heating systems in Poland including improving quality of environment, economic of heat production and security of heat supply is in close connection with increasing of energy efficiency. Heat production and heat distribution plays important role in national energy balance. Additional increasing of energy efficiency in district heating systems need detail forecasts for future heat consumption in  scale of individual district heating system  and for systems in whole country. Accurate forecast give possibility for increasing  efficiency of heat production, decreasing fuel consumption and connected with it emission decreasing from combustion products to the atmosphere. Heat production efficiency can be optimized through the use of appropriate procedures for running heat sources alongside short-term heat demand forecasting combined with preparation for adjusting heat source work parameters to the predicted heat load for a few hours hence. The artificial neural networks model delivers good forecasting results. The accuracy of the results depends on the kind of network, its architecture, the size and type of input data as well as the forecasting period. Forecasting accuracy within a 3-5% margin of error is sufficient to steer heat source operations. Described forecasting methods can be use as a good tool to regulate district heating networks and heat sources.},
 year = {2014}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Predicting Heat Demand for a District Heating Systems
AU  - Krzysztof Wojdyga
Y1  - 2014/10/20
PY  - 2014
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
SP  - 237
EP  - 244
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-960X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20140305.13
AB  - Poland is one of the heaviest users of district heating systems in Europe, and those district heating systems are heated mainly by coal. Sustainable development of district heating systems in Poland including improving quality of environment, economic of heat production and security of heat supply is in close connection with increasing of energy efficiency. Heat production and heat distribution plays important role in national energy balance. Additional increasing of energy efficiency in district heating systems need detail forecasts for future heat consumption in  scale of individual district heating system  and for systems in whole country. Accurate forecast give possibility for increasing  efficiency of heat production, decreasing fuel consumption and connected with it emission decreasing from combustion products to the atmosphere. Heat production efficiency can be optimized through the use of appropriate procedures for running heat sources alongside short-term heat demand forecasting combined with preparation for adjusting heat source work parameters to the predicted heat load for a few hours hence. The artificial neural networks model delivers good forecasting results. The accuracy of the results depends on the kind of network, its architecture, the size and type of input data as well as the forecasting period. Forecasting accuracy within a 3-5% margin of error is sufficient to steer heat source operations. Described forecasting methods can be use as a good tool to regulate district heating networks and heat sources.
VL  - 3
IS  - 5
ER  -

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