For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16.
| Published in |
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 1-1)
This article belongs to the Special Issue Computational Statistics |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14 |
| Page(s) | 19-23 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Trade Balance, ARIMA
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APA Style
Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Anteneh Asmare Godana. (2015). Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(1-1), 19-23. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
ACS Style
Yibeltal Arega Ashebir; Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw; Anteneh Asmare Godana. Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2015, 4(1-1), 19-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
AMA Style
Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Anteneh Asmare Godana. Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2015;4(1-1):19-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14,
author = {Yibeltal Arega Ashebir and Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw and Anteneh Asmare Godana},
title = {Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia},
journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
volume = {4},
number = {1-1},
pages = {19-23},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14},
abstract = {For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16.},
year = {2015}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia AU - Yibeltal Arega Ashebir AU - Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw AU - Anteneh Asmare Godana Y1 - 2015/03/20 PY - 2015 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14 DO - 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14 T2 - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics JF - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics JO - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics SP - 19 EP - 23 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2326-9006 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14 AB - For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16. VL - 4 IS - 1-1 ER -
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